EU imports record 12.18 million tonnes of Russian Arctic LNG in first nine months of 2026

BERLIN, 09 OCTOBER 2026 - The EU paid an estimated €1.92 billion for LNG from Russia's Yamal project in the third quarter of 2026, according to new Urgewald analysis of Kpler data.

EU ports received a record 12.18 million tonnes between January and September, an increase of 9.5 per cent compared with the same period last year.

EU ports received 2.21 million tonnes between July and September, as Washington approaches a deadline to review sanctions on the vessels sustaining Russia's gas trade.

Although third-quarter import volumes were 13.6 per cent lower than in Q3 2025, the EU's estimated bill for the first nine months reached €7.88 billion.

Urgewald's analysis shows that 167 Yamal cargoes were delivered to EU ports between January and September. Europe received 85 per cent of the project's recorded deliveries by volume, remaining by far its largest market.

The increase came even as Yamal's worldwide deliveries fell by 1.3 per cent. Europe took more Russian Arctic LNG and absorbed a greater share of the project's output.

These deliveries continued ahead of a potentially significant US sanctions decision. The Trump administration has until 18 October to conduct its first review under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which was signed into law on 18 September.

The Lindsay Graham Act gives Washington the power to sanction this trade at any time from now on.

The new law covers Yamal's leadership and foreign vessels knowingly transporting Russian LNG. It also covers foreign port owners and operators that allow relevant US-sanctioned vessels to call or receive services. Its application depends on presidential determinations and waivers. This means that by October 18 at the latest, the EU will depend on Trump over Yamal LNG deliveries.

Arctic LNG 2 is already under US sanctions. This has left China as the only buyer of ALNG2 cargoes.

Yamal depends on specialised Arc7 ice-class tankers to keep gas moving through Arctic waters.

European ports provide a nearby market, allowing vessels to unload and return to the project quickly. Closing this route and restricting the services supporting the fleet would make Russia's Arctic LNG trade harder to sustain.

September Deliveries Remain at Last Year's Level Despite Short-Term Contract Ban

September deliveries were slightly higher than September last year and reached 792,440 tonnes, worth an estimated €818 million. The EU's short-term contract ban entered into force several months ago. So far, no noticeable effect is visible.

France received nearly three-quarters of September's EU deliveries. No Yamal deliveries were recorded in Spain or at Belgium's Zeebrugge terminal that month.

Sebastian Rötters, Sanctions Campaigner at Urgewald, said:

"The EU has imported more than 12 million tonnes of Yamal LNG this year, worth an estimated €7.88 billion. That is over 44,000 tonnes every day on average. Even after the summer slowdown, Europe has taken more than it did during the same period last year.

"Europe's continued purchases give Russia a large, nearby market for its Arctic gas. They also give European governments significant power over this trade.

"But the continued flow of Yamal LNG into Europe exposes the limited impact of the measures adopted so far. The short-term contract ban has done little to disrupt the trade. Only the full import ban from 2027 will begin to put serious pressure on Russia's LNG business.

"Every additional month of largely uninterrupted LNG trade means further revenue for Russia while Ukraine continues to suffer daily attacks by missiles and drones. The EU should not wait passively for the 2027 embargo to take effect. The next sanctions package should close the remaining loopholes, above all those that keep the indispensable Arc7 LNG tanker fleet operating. Washington, meanwhile, now has the power to sanction this trade at any time before then."

The EU's ban on Russian LNG imports under eligible existing long-term contracts takes effect on 1 January 2027. Restrictions on existing short-term LNG contracts have applied since 25 April 2026.

January-September 2026 at a glance

Estimated EU payments: €7.88 billion.

Quarterly estimates: €2.88 billion in Q1, €3.08 billion in Q2 and €1.92 billion in Q3.

167 cargoes and 12.18 million tonnes delivered to EU ports.

9.5 per cent increase in EU-bound volumes compared with January-September 2025.

85 per cent of recorded Yamal deliveries went to Europe.

2.21 million tonnes delivered to the EU in Q3.

792,440 tonnes, worth an estimated €818 million, delivered to the EU in September.

The EU received a Yamal cargo roughly every 1.6 days.

Notes to editors

The analysis uses cargo-level Kpler data, analysed by Urgewald. Figures cover completed deliveries from 1 January to 30 September 2026, with destinations based on the recorded final discharge port. Cargoes still in transit and October deliveries are excluded. The full dataset is available on request.

Payment methodology: Each month's EU-delivered tonnes are multiplied by 13.7 MWh per tonne and that month's TTF benchmark price. Cargoes are assigned to their final delivery month. Monthly estimates are then summed to calculate quarterly and January-September totals, using unrounded values before rounding the totals for publication.

The January-August price assumptions are retained from Urgewald's earlier estimates: January €35.00/MWh; February €35.00; March €52.87; April €45.21; May €47.32; June €44.94; July €53.99; August €61.55. January-June inputs are published in Urgewald's July release. July uses the ICE monthly average reported by AleaSoft, and August retains the Investing.com-based assumption published in Urgewald's September release. September uses the completed monthly ICE TTF front-month average of €75.34/MWh, reported by AleaSoft.

These are indicative gross-payment estimates based on benchmark prices, rather than verified contract payments. They do not account for contract discounts, transport costs, regasification fees, taxes or subsequent resale, and do not measure corporate profit or net Russian state income.

About Urgewald

Urgewald is a German environmental and human rights organisation that exposes the companies and financial institutions backing fossil fuels. Its work on Russia tracks LNG exports and revenues, investigates the shipping and services sustaining the trade, and campaigns to close sanctions loopholes that allow Russian fossil fuel exports to continue financing the war against Ukraine.

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